What do the figures show?

An analysis conducted by the Hydrometeorological Research Institute using international and national monitoring data has revealed a simultaneous increase in air pollution across several major cities in Central Asia. According to IQAir, on 26 October 2026, the Air Quality Index (AQI) exceeded 100 in six of the eight major Central Asian cities covered by the monitoring. The AQI reached 160 in Bishkek, 157 in Tashkent, 149 in Shymkent, 134 in Karaganda and 134 in Dushanbe. On the same day, Bishkek ranked fourth globally among cities with the most polluted air.

In Kazakhstan, the number of cities where warnings of adverse meteorological conditions were issued increased from four on 24 October to ten by 27 October. These figures indicate that the deterioration in air quality is regional in nature. Simultaneous pollution episodes in cities located far apart cannot be explained solely by local emission sources. Weather conditions and the movement of air masses also play a significant role.

Why has air pollution increased?

During the final ten days of October 2026, Central Asia experienced anticyclonic conditions, weaker winds, a lack of precipitation and temperature inversions. Under these conditions, air near the ground does not rise and mix sufficiently with the air in the layers above. As a result, pollutants from transport, industrial facilities, energy production and other sources, along with naturally occurring dust, accumulate in the lower atmosphere.

In Tashkent, the daily average AQI rose from 93 on 21 October to 164 on 26 October, an increase of 76% in five days. According to the analysis, air pollution tends to intensify at night. Over the past 30 days, the average AQI reached 119 at 11 p.m., compared with 82 at 5 p.m. This difference highlights the significant influence of air circulation and atmospheric stability on pollution levels.

How significant is the contribution of natural dust?

Central Asia lies within an extensive dust belt encompassing the Karakum, Kyzylkum and Aralkum deserts, as well as other arid areas. Natural dust is therefore one of the key factors affecting air quality across the region. Laboratory analysis of PM2.5 samples collected between 12 and 16 October 2026 in Tashkent’s Almazar, Yunusabad and Mirzo-Ulugbek districts found that natural dust accounted for an average of 39.7% of the particulate matter, while emissions associated with fuel combustion in industry, transport and energy production accounted for 42.6%. These findings demonstrate that both natural dust and human activities make substantial contributions to fine particulate air pollution.

During a period of intensified dust transport from 28 September to 6 October, natural dust accounted for an average of 64% of PM2.5, reaching as much as 78% in some samples. It is important to note that dust can be transported by air currents from distant areas into cities. Consequently, the problem cannot be fully addressed through measures implemented within urban boundaries alone. At the same time, reducing emissions from transport and fuel combustion remains essential.

PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in Tashkent have declined

According to the data presented in the analysis, between January and 19 October 2026, PM2.5 concentrations in Tashkent decreased by 28% compared with the same period of the previous year, while PM10 concentrations fell by 32%. The average air quality index for October also declined from 124 to 104. Furthermore, according to IQAir’s 2025 report, the annual average PM2.5 concentration was 57.3 µg/m³ in Dushanbe, 72.6 µg/m³ in Karaganda and 39.0 µg/m³ in Tashkent. These figures indicate that short-term increases in air pollution in Tashkent should be assessed separately from the overall annual picture. However, a decline in certain indicators does not mean that the air pollution problem has been resolved.

How does climate change affect air quality?

Rising temperatures, droughts and declining soil moisture create favourable conditions for dust to become airborne. The Aralkum Desert, which has formed on the dried bed of the Aral Sea, has also become an additional source of dust in the region. Climate change can increase the risk of deteriorating air quality. However, it would be inaccurate to attribute pollution episodes on specific days solely to climate change. Each episode must be assessed by taking into account meteorological conditions, dust transport and emissions resulting from human activities.

What measures are needed?

To address the problem effectively, it is essential to improve air quality monitoring and forecasting systems, provide timely public warnings and strengthen data exchange between the hydrometeorological services of neighbouring countries. Regular laboratory analysis of PM2.5 and PM10 composition is also necessary to determine more accurately the respective contributions of natural and anthropogenic pollution sources.

Other priorities include reducing emissions from transport, energy production and heating systems; preventing dust generation at construction sites and on roads; and continuing systematic greening initiatives.

In conclusion, the increase in air pollution across Central Asian cities in October 2026 has resulted from the combined effects of adverse meteorological conditions, natural dust and emissions associated with human activities. Addressing this challenge requires not only a prompt response to episodes of deteriorating air quality, but also the identification of pollution sources, emission reductions and stronger regional cooperation.