Committee for Industrial, Radiation and Nuclear Safety under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are anticipated to emerge as a critical zero-emission source, playing a decisive role in offsetting generation deficits caused by the planned retirement of aging reactor fleets.

Speaking at the 70th Regular Session of the IAEA General Conference in Vienna, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi presented updated estimates from the 46th edition of the annual report: “Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2060.”

This marks the sixth consecutive year that the Agency has revised its long-term nuclear growth projections upward. The analytical scope, previously bound to 2050, has now been formally extended to 2060.

At year-end 2025, the global operational nuclear fleet comprised 413 reactors representing an aggregate installed electric capacity of 377.1 GWe.

• High-Case Scenario: Installed nuclear capacity is projected to reach 1,045 GWe by 2050 (up from 992 GWe estimated in the previous forecast) and surge to 1,284 GWe by 2060—representing a 3.4-fold increase over 2025 levels.

• Low-Case Scenario: Global nuclear capacity is projected to reach 696 GWe by 2060, nearly doubling current operational totals.

“The IAEA projections demonstrate the expanding role nuclear power must play to satisfy burgeoning global electricity consumption. Fulfilling this potential will require sustained capital deployment into new builds alongside long-term operation (LTO) programs for existing reactors,” stated IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi.

Nuclear Power's Global Generation Share

In 2025, global nuclear generation rose by 1.1% year-on-year to 2,689.1 TWh. However, aggregate global electricity production outpaced this expansion (+2.7%), resulting in a marginal contraction of nuclear energy's global share from 8.7% in 2024 to 8.4% in 2025.

Substantial Acceleration in Central and Eastern Asia

The report notes that Central and Eastern Asia will account for the single largest share of new nuclear deployments. Under the high-case scenario, the region's installed capacity is projected to expand from 114 GWe in 2025 to 407 GWe by 2060, with nuclear generation output growing nearly fivefold over the same timeline.

The Accelerating Role of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)

SMR technology will capture an increasing market share over the coming decades:

• High Case: SMRs could represent 28% of total new nuclear additions deployed through 2060;

• Low Case: SMRs are projected to comprise 23% of new builds (contrasting with earlier projections of 24% and 5%, respectively).

Geographically, North America will demonstrate the steepest SMR adoption, where modular units could account for up to 60% of all additions. In Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, SMRs are projected to represent roughly 40% of added capacity across both projection scenarios.

Fleet Aging and Retirement Replacement

Presently, two out of every three operating power reactors have exceeded 30 years of operational service, with over 45% running past 40 years.

By 2060, approximately one-third of the 2025 operating reactor fleet is expected to be permanently decommissioned under the high case, and nearly two-thirds under the low case.

Consequently, early lifecycle planning for decommissioning and generation replacement remains paramount:

• During 2025, 7 reactor units totaling 2.8 GWe were permanently shut down;

• Conversely, 3 new reactors totaling 3.0 GWe were grid-connected, and construction commenced on 12 new units with an aggregate capacity of 14.3 GWe;

• Extensive lifetime extension programs and modernization regimes are advancing across major nuclear markets, complemented by market design reforms ensuring the commercial viability of existing base-load fleets.

Reference Notes:

The 46th edition of the IAEA's “Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2060” draws on three core datasets:

1. The IAEA Power Reactor Information System (PRIS);

2. Findings from the IAEA Annual Consultants’ Meeting on Nuclear Capacity Forecasts;

3. “Uranium: Resources, Production and Demand” (The Red Book), jointly prepared by the IAEA and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA).

Published continuously for 46 years, IAEA estimates evolve dynamically alongside changing global macroeconomic and power market realities. Historical data from the preceding decade affirms that global nuclear trajectory remains firmly aligned with the Agency's multi-scenario modeling.