Ministry of Economy and Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan

As a result of six improvements in Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit rating over the past 1 year, the average cost of attracting new debt has decreased by 1.5 percentage points.
 

In addition, following the upgrade of the country’s credit rating, the ratings of more than 20 banks and enterprises improved, reducing their average debt-raising costs by 1.9 percentage points.
 

In particular, after Fitch revised the outlook on Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit rating from BB Stable to BB Positive on 3 June of this year, the rating outlooks of 14 banks and enterprises were revised between 8 and 17 June.
 

The report attributes the republic's rating upgrade to the consistent improvement of institutional capacity and economic policy, as well as the strengthening of economic and fiscal prospects under the leadership of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev. It also notes the increased effectiveness of the policies being implemented and the economy's enhanced resilience to external shocks.
 

In particular, attention was drawn to stable and diversified economic growth, strengthened budget discipline, and improved mechanisms for managing the government’s contingent liabilities.
 

The continuation of structural reforms was highly assessed, including measures aimed at improving governance, strengthening competition, and reducing the state’s participation in the economy.
 

In this context, the successful placement of UzNIF shares was recognized as a factor strengthening Uzbekistan’s assessment and was noted as evidence of growing investor confidence in the reforms being implemented in Uzbekistan.
 

The report also highlights reforms aimed at liberalizing the energy and gas sectors, accession to the WTO, strengthening governance and anti-corruption systems, and improving monetary and macroprudential policy.
 

At the same time, the report notes expectations that Uzbekistan’s governance indicators will improve as reforms move into a more complex stage and as the country achieves increasingly strong economic and fiscal outcomes.
 

Moody’s paid particular attention to the fact that in 2025 the budget deficit narrowed to 2 percent, energy subsidies decreased, tariff policy for electricity and gas was directed toward full cost recovery, and social assistance became more targeted.
 

According to the agency, the budget deficit is expected not to exceed 3 percent in 2026–2028, while public debt is expected to remain at a stable level. These factors are considered key to ensuring macroeconomic stability.
 

The report acknowledges that, owing to structural reforms and economic diversification, economic growth accelerated despite external shocks, reaching 7.7 percent in 2025 and 8.7 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
 

It is also emphasized that international reserves serve as a protective buffer, covering more than 17 months of imports.
 

The report states that privatization processes will be carried out gradually, given the need to transform state-owned enterprises and banks, as well as to strengthen transparency and governance for international investors.
 

According to Moody’s, Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit rating may be upgraded in the following cases:
 

·        a significant improvement in competition, regulatory quality, and government effectiveness as a result of the implementation of governance and institutional reforms, narrowing the gap with higher-rated countries;
 

·        a substantial reduction in fiscal risks as a result of reforms of state-owned enterprises and banks, continued improvement in the management of contingent liabilities, and further strengthening of monetary policy;
 

expanded economic growth potential driven by increased productivity and private investment.

PR and Communications Department
Ministry of Economy and Finance