Ministry of Economy and Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan

In June 2023, "Fitch" had upgraded Uzbekistan's credit rating by one notch from "BB-" to "BB". Since 2014, only 15 countries have achieved consecutive upgrades to both their rating assessment and outlook within a 12-month period.
 

The report explains the upgrade of Uzbekistan's credit rating outlook to "Positive" with the following reasons:
 

·    Despite global uncertainties, the effectiveness of reforms and the continuation of policies aimed at strengthening macroeconomic stability are expected to lead to sustainable economic growth and improved macroeconomic indicators in the medium term;
 

·    the continuation of fiscal and monetary reforms will serve to reduce the budget deficit and significantly increase international reserves by strengthening macroeconomic policy and transparency;
 

·    the reforms are also expected to have a positive impact on governance quality indicators.
 

It was noted that Fitch's maintenance of Uzbekistan's credit rating at "BB" reflects low public debt relative to GDP, the volume of external reserves, and high economic growth potential.
 

According to the agency, the government's reform program is aimed at increasing economic efficiency through privatization, improving monetary policy and fiscal management, and ensuring transparency.
 

In particular, it was specially recognized that the National Investment Fund, which holds shares in large state-owned enterprises, was listed on international capital markets in May of this year.
 

The report states that the rise in oil and gas prices due to the situation in the Middle East is reflected in forecasts, which is expected to negatively impact economic growth and inflation this year.
 

In particular, due to the positive impact of reforms, favorable price conditions for commodities, and stable remittances, economic growth is expected to be 6 percent in 2026, an average of 6.4 percent in 2027–2028, and 6.3 percent in the medium-term outlook.
 

The agency positively assessed that for 2025, the budget deficit was 2.1 percent of GDP, below the upper limit of 3 percent. It was noted that budget revenues were higher than expected, including due to favorable commodity price conditions. Attention was also drawn to the reduction of energy subsidies in 2026.
 

The agency forecasts that due to a declining budget deficit and high economic growth, public debt will remain significantly below the established upper limit (60 percent of GDP) in 2027–2028.
 

Additionally, it was noted that under the inflation-targeting regime, the Central Bank's policy rate has been held at 14 percent since March 2025. In this context, it was reported that inflation stood at 7 percent in April 2026.
 

According to Fitch, Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating may be upgraded in the following cases:
 

·The acceleration of structural reforms strengthens macroeconomic stability, maintains high economic growth, and has a positive impact on fiscal indicators;
 

· A low budget deficit is ensured, resulting in public debt being maintained at a sustainable level in the medium term;
 

· The quality of governance improves significantly and sustainably.

PR and Communications Department

Ministry of Economy and Finance